You are here

 

-New farmer aid package details expected today - Trump to address issue this afternoon
-China corn auctions underway with strong interest as expected
-Russia sees higher wheat crop/marginally lower exports this year
-Exceptionally wet forecast remains for at least next 10 days
 
 USDA Ag Secretary Perdue said the new farmer aid package will be around $16 billion, with some of the money earmarked for market access programs. Details of the package are expected to be released later today by USDA, while President Trump is scheduled to address the issue today at 2:15 CT. Perdue said he hopes trade negotiations with China will resume after the G20 summit at the end of June, but optimism of a deal anytime soon is minimal.
 China’s first auction of state reserve corn of the year saw 3.62 MMT (90.7%) of the 3.992 MMT offered sold at an average price of 1,639 yuan/tonne (~$236.88/tonne). Interestingly, the initial auction results are very similar to last year’s first auction on April 12 in which 3.33 MMT was sold at an average price of $235.49/tonne, although the current price in yuan terms is solidly higher than last year’s 1,481 yuan/tonne.
 Preliminary trade data showed China imported 660k tonnes of corn in April vs 420k tonnes in March and 380k tonnes last year April. Total 2018/19 marketing year (Oct-Sep) corn imports so far of 2.270 MMT compare to 1.491 MMT imported through April last year.
 Russia’s deputy ag minister said early ideas on 2019/20 wheat exports are 37 MMT, which would be down 1 MMT from this year’s 36 MMT estimate, while total grain exports in 2019/20 are estimated at 45 MMT vs 44 MMT this year (raised from 43 MMT previously). Their estimates for old and new crop wheat exports are exactly in line with the USDA’s last official estimates, as well. The new crop export ideas are based on the current wheat crop expectation of 75 MMT, which is a bit below USDA’s current 77.0 MMT, but up from last year’s 71.7 MMT.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/36054 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
 U.S. soybean sales were actually fairly decent at 536k tonnes (19.7 million bushels), beating market expectations of 0-400k tonnes, rising from the previous week's 13.5 million bushels and were the highest in 7 weeks and 2nd best of the last 10 weeks. China still has 7.0 MMT of old crop soybeans on the books awaiting shipment vs just 1.87 MMT at this time last year.
 U.S. corn sales of 442k tonnes (17.4 million bushels) were in line with market expectations of 200-600k tonnes, but were down from the previous week's 21.8 million bushels, were below last year's same-week sales of 33.6 million and were the 2nd lowest of the last 10 weeks. More importantly, for the 3rd consecutive week, sales were below the roughly 23.0 million bushels (584k tonnes)/week we estimate sales need to average through the end of August in order for the USDA's 2.300 billion bushel export projection.
 New crop wheat sales of 345k tonnes (12.7 million bushels)were in line with market expectations of 100-500k tonnes, and put 2019/20 total commitments at 122 million bushels, which are well above last year's new crop sales at this time last year of just 88 million, but are still at the very bottom of the range of new crop sales of the previous 7 years which ranged from 122-204 million bushels at this point.  Soybean meal sales were solid at 188k tonnes (50-300k tonnes expected) and continue to notably outpace the average "needed" sales pace of just 74k tonnes/week. Soybean oil sales of 9.1k tonnes were in line with expectations of 4-25k tonnes and were in line with the roughly 9k tonnes/week "needed" pace to reach the USDA's export projection.
Weather
An exceptionally wet pattern looks to continue across much of the Midwest in the next 10 days. The line of showers and thunderstorms in the east will continue east and dissipate as we go through the next 12 hours. Additional totals of .20-.60” are seen for the southern 1/3rd of IL/IN and most of OH. The next system will begin to develop some hit and miss showers and thunderstorms by later today and then those showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday and Saturday. That activity still looks to favor MN, IA, WI, WI and the northern 2/3rd of IL, IN and OH. Amounts continue to look to be in the .50-1” range with that activity, with some 1”+ amounts also possible. The forecast for Sunday and into much of week indicates a stalled front to produce waves of showers and thunderstorms across most of the region. Estimates on amounts with that activity from Sunday through Friday are running in the 1-2” range, with areas of 2”+ likely in IA, southern MN and northern IL. 

Capitol Commodity Services/R.J. O'Brien & Associates, LLC Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O’Brien and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O’Brien’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O’Brien believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Tags

Fed
PPI
Qe
S&p

Get in touch

  • Capitol Commodity Hedging Services, Inc

          3905 Vincennes Road Suite 303

          Indianapolis

          IN 46268
  • 1-800-876-8050
  • 317-848-8050
  • info@ccstrade.com

Latest Tweets

Lannie Cohen (4 hours ago)
https://t.co/yUbJMN0NyA #futures #commodities #bitcoin #trading #market #forex #stocks
Lannie Cohen (6 hours ago)
Today's Economic & #Commodity #Futures Perspectives FOMC expected to start laying the groundwork for a rate cut L… https://t.co/t33gjDAWku
Lannie Cohen (6 hours ago)
Today's Economic & #Commodity #Futures Perspectives FOMC expected to start laying the groundwork for a rate cut L… https://t.co/zPfm3BL27U
Lannie Cohen (Yesterday)
https://t.co/GYwFmJp2fu #futures #commodities #bitcoin #trading #market #forex #stocks
Lannie Cohen (Yesterday)
Morning #Grain Comments, #Corn, #Soybeans, #Wheat -Another 10-day wet forecast keeps grain market rally fed -NOPA… https://t.co/XsEky4lYwr