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-NOPA crush data out today
-Decent rains expected in many areas, but period of season's highest temps watched
-Russian wheat crop ideas ticked lower/Ukrainian corn higher
-China soybean reserve auction very limited
 
A 5-day period of potentially very hot temperatures across much of the corn belt is expected at the end of this week. While pollination is not quite underway in many areas of the belt, it is in much of Missouri and Iowa, while the expected limited rains for most of Missouri, the SE half of IA and NW half of Illinois ahead of the heat elevates near term concerns for the crop in those areas in particular, as well. However, decent rains are expected for much of the corn belt over the coming 10-day period (map on 2nd page) and will be beneficial at this point. NOTE: Due to business travels, the posting of this afternoon’s Crop Progress numbers may be slightly delayed, but every effort will be made to post our regular detailed summary to Market Insights as timely as possible. Additionally, there will not be a CBOT Morning Comment tomorrow morning.
 
 NOPA will release its monthly soybean crush report today at 11:00 AM CT. The average trade estimate of June soybean crush by NOPA members is 154.4 million bushels (147.9-164.5 million range of ideas) vs 154.8 million in May and down moderately from last year’s June NOPA crush of 159.2 million bushels. Based on the USDA’s just-lowered 2018/19 annual crush estimate of 2.085 billion bushels, June-August U.S.-total crush would need to run roughly 1.9% below last year, while the average trade estimate of NOPA crush for June reflects and expected 3.0% decline for the month. The average estimate of end June soybean oil stocks held by NOPA member is 1.527 billion pounds vs 1.581 billion in May and 1.766 billion in June last year. The range of ideas is 1.490-1.595 billion pounds. NOTE: Due to business travels, we may not be able to post the snap of today’s NOPA crush report numbers on Market Insights at the time of their release. Our regular write-up on the data will be delayed until later in the afternoon.
 China’s Q2 economic growth slowed to 6.2% from 6.4% in Q1 and reflected the country’s lowest quarterly growth in at least 26 years (since data began being reported in 1993) according to government data released today.
 Amid concerns/reports of issues with the ability to control the spread of African swine fever throughout the country, China will conduct checks on local veterinary authorities in 10 provinces to be completed by October 31. Measures taken towards, and the ability to prevent and control the spread of the disease will be examined.
 China reported their summer grain harvest (consisting mostly of wheat) was a very strong 141.7 MMT, up 2.1% from last year, despite a 1.3% decline in area of this year’s crops.
 China sold a mere 1.6k tonnes of the 142k tonnes (1.2%) of reserve soybeans offered at this week’s auction, with the average selling price of around $436/tonne ($11.88/bu). So far, 439k tonnes of reserve soybeans have been sold at auction this year vs 972k tonnes at this time last year. After the first two weeks’ auctions saw solid interest, the last three weeks interest was very limited.
 Russian ag consultant IKAR lowered their estimate of the country’s wheat crop to 77.5 MMT from 78.5 MMT previously (USDA 74.2 MMT in July vs 78.0 MMT June) and warned more reductions may be seen in the future.
 Ukrainian ag consultant ProAgro raised their estimate of this year’s corn crop to 34.5 MMT from 32.6 MMT previously and compares to the USDA’s last estimate of 34.0 MMT (33.0 MMT in June) and last year’s 35.8 MMT. They modestly lowered their estimate of Ukraine’s wheat crop to 27.4 MMT from 28.1 MMT previously and compares to USDA at 29.0 MMT (30.0 MMT in June) and 25.1 MMT last year.
 Friday’s CFTC COT data showed another week of fairly limited fund position changes in the grain markets with their net long in corn increasing by 5.5k contracts to 187k, while net buying was also seen in soybean oil of 5.6k contracts (net short 30.7k) and 1.5k in KCBT wheat (net short 17.8k). Funds were net sellers in soybeans of 5.0k contracts (net short 41.9k), 6.7k CBOT wheat (net long 30.4k), 5.8k SBM (net short 20.4k) and 3.5k MPLS wheat (net short 12.3k).
Weather
A wedge of little to no precip will be seen from southern IA/northern MO through NW IL in the next 10 days. All other areas will see decent rains in the next 5 days and then little in the way of rainfall in the 6-10 day period. The remnants of Barry will track up the lower MS River Valley in the next 12-24 hours and then head through the SE Midwest, bringing totals of .50-1.5”+ to the southeast 1/3 of MO, southern ½ of IL, most of IN and the northwest 2/3rd of OH. Waves of showers and thunderstorms look to bring totals of .30-1”+ to most of MN, WI, MI and northern IA in the next 5 days, with things mainly dry elsewhere. The 6-10 day period sees upper air ridging to build into the central US and cause any rains in the Midwest to be confined to the far north, with things mainly dry in the majority of the region. Temps will be running average to above average across the region in the next 5 days and then look to heat up even further for the 6-10 day period. Temps next week look to be in the 90s in most of the region, with some upper 90s and even a few 100s possible in the west and south. The 11-16 day period sees the ridging in the central US to slip west and allow a NW flow aloft to develop across the Midwest. This would bring average to a below average precip and average temps to the Midwest. 

Capitol Commodity Services/R.J. O'Brien & Associates, LLC Disclaimer: This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. O’Brien and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. O’Brien’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. O’Brien believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. 

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