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-Canadian wheat area estimate higher than expected - spring wheat area up sharply from last year
-China's largest hog producer reports Q1 net loss
-US/China trade talks resume next week
-No USDA sales announcements
-US weather pattern remains active - snow expected in Dakotas
 
Wheat traded in two-sided fashion for most of the overnight session and then declined solidly at 7:30 AM upon Statistics Canada’s planting intentions report showing higher than expected wheat area, with spring wheat area up sharply from last year. Corn and soybeans saw back and forth price action overnight and come into today’s session with minor gains, with soybeans attempting to stabilize after yesterday’s sharp sell-off. July soybeans are now just 14 cents off the mid-September contract low of 863.25.
 
 Statistics Canada’s first estimate of 2019/20 crop area put all wheat planted area at 25.674 million acres, well above the average estimate of 24.8 million acres, and even slightly above the entire range of ideas of 22.8-25.6 million acres and would be up nearly one million acres from last year’s 24.735 million. Spring wheat area was estimated at 19.387 million acres, up sharply from last year’s 17.311 million (15.801 million in 2017), while durum area at 5.021 million acres (5.2 million average trade estimate) would be down sharply from last year’s 6.185 million. Canola area was estimated at 21.314 million acres, below the average trade estimate of 21.8 million (20.1-22.4 million range) and down from last year’s 22.813 million as farmers shy away from canola amidst the Chinese trade issues. Oat area was estimated at 3.291 million acres, in line with the average estimate of 3.3 million and p modestly from last year’s 3.053 million. Barley planted area was estimated at 7.155 million acres, above the average estimate of 6.9 million (6.1-7.5 mil range) and up from last year’s 6.493 million. Soybean area was estimated at 5.646 million acres, well below average expectations of 6.4 million acres (6.0-7.3 mil range) and down from last year’s 6.320 million acres.  The next round of face-to-face talks between U.S./Chinese trade negotiators is set for April 30 in Beijing with USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin making another trip to China as the process continues. A White House spokesman said next week’s talks will include “intellectual property, forced technology transfer, non-tariff barriers, agriculture, services, purchases and enforcement.” Chinese Vice Premier Liu is reportedly set to return to Washington for additional talks on May 8.
 China’s largest pig and poultry producer, Wen Foodstuff Group, reported a net loss in the first quarter of 2019 of $68.6 million (460.5 million yuan) vs a net profit in 2018Q1 of 1.4 billion yuan amid the difficulties in the pig industry resulting in weak hog prices during the quarter and elevated costs caused by ASF prevention measures. Conversely, Asia’s largest breeder of white-feathered broiler chickens, Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding, reported a 2019Q1 profit of nearly 382 million yuan, 36 times last year’s Q1 results, as a result of sharply rising breeding bird prices.
 A USDA spokesman said the agency does not have any plans to specifically survey for estimated grain losses as a result of flooding during March in the Dakotas through Missouri as part of the process of assembling data for the June 28 quarterly Grain Stocks report. However, as those stocks will no longer be reported as existing supplies, it will get factored into total June 1 stocks numbers and could have a minor impact on the report. An estimated one million acres of farmland was flooded in March, with an ag technology company doing aerial analysis identifying 832 on -farm storage bins in the impacted area, holding a potential 5-10 million bushels of corn and soybeans at risk of damage/loss.
 There were no USDA sales announcements this morning. 
  

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